Carleton University - School of Computer Science Honours Project
Winter 2022
Analysis of the 2021 Canadian federal election and the potential impact of COVID-19 on voter turnout
Ben Herriott
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ABSTRACT
This report examines whether COVID-19 played a significant role in voter turnout at Canada’s 2021 snap general election. At the time, over 70% of those eligible to vote supported postponing elections as a direct consequence of the pandemic. This evaluation will levy the potential impact of COVID-19 against other potential indicators for voter turnout. Using an algorithm devised for electoral competitiveness and other turnout indicators, this project looks at voter turnout rates at the provincial level to determine whether any discernible differences occur across Canada. This project takes the historic patterns of voter turnout into account. It uses multi-regression analysis to see if there is a noticeable variance in the 2021 election compared to other elections in the past twenty years. With differences in the public policies of each Province, further regression investigations examine the specific impact of COVID-19 using factors such as overall case count, mortality rates and the severity of lock-down measures to determine whether this caused any voter differentials at the provincial level. The results found show minimal to no relation between COVID-19 and voter turnout in the 2021 election.